Address by the President at the 4th Bled Strategic Forum

Bled, 30.8.2009  |  speech

Address by the Guest of Honor, H.E. Dr Danilo Türk, President of the Republic of Slovenia at the Opening of the 4th Bled Strategic Forum
Bled, 30th August 2009


Distinguished Participants,

I have expressed a few words of welcome in my own native language, in the Slovene, but I am departing from the principle and tradition, which governs our linguistic practices in Slovenia, because this is a truly international gathering and I think that we are all obliged to use the lingua franca of today, the English language, with the aim to understand each other as well as we can. We also need to discuss issues which are relevant, which are important for our future and which are difficult.

The Bled Strategic Forum has been traditionally convened to deal with difficult issues. And as we look at the title “The Politics of Economic Crisis: Redefining Economic and Geopolitical Landscapes in Europe and Eurasia” we can certainly sense a great deal of complexity. But let us think about what the point of departure for our thinking should be. And when I was thinking about this, it occurred to me that the famous phrase of Charles Dickens could actually help us. The phrase, that we live in the best of times and in the worst of times - at the same time.

Now, obviously the recession, which has hit the world, is one of the worst economic crises in human history. In the 20th Century the world has only had one such great recession, which then turned into a series of difficulties, economic disasters and eventually a world war. We certainly do not want that kind of history to repeat itself. So we have to be aware of the fact that this is a difficult time, that it can turn into the worst time.

But then, on the other hand, this is a time of certain positive signs, which we must not overlook. I do not propose to deal with all the positive signs, but I would like to mention that the repeated and evermore intense insistence on cooperation and on multilateralism carries a very important sign of hope. The world has not seen this kind of expressions of commitment to multilateralism for a long time by now. We have to think collectively on how to take the best advantage of the fact that the commitment to multilateralism has been expressed so strongly. So let us think about this.

And when we think about this, let us not forget that Bled Strategic Forum has always been about security. Security issues are always part of our discussions here, irrespective of what the specific focus is. Security today is a global affair and a multilateral affair. And when we think about multilateral mechanisms, which are available to deal with issues of security today, we can certainly see a certain deficit; A deficit of effectiveness. We have institutions, they are there, some of them quite old, but it would be probably inaccurate to say that they are effective.

There are various ways of addressing this problem. In the United Nations the discussion on the reform of the United Nations Security Council has been going on for a while and it will continue. It is hoped that it will improve the effectiveness of the Security Council and of the United Nations as a whole.

What we have to think about as well are additional mechanisms, new mechanisms, those which can be established today, some of which can be situation-specific and which could be developed to deal with specific and potentially globally important crisis situation.

Let me take an obvious example, the example of Afghanistan. Everybody would agree that Afghanistan is a problem of global peace and security and that the situation in Afghanistan, which is not new, has been exacerbated by the developments of the last two decades. On the other hand, it is also important to think about whether we have all the instruments in place to deal with the current situation in Afghanistan. Slovenia is a member of NATO and NATO is very deeply involved in the situation in Afghanistan. But more and more, we, the people in the member states of NATO, feel that there is a need to start looking for an effective exit strategy from Afghanistan. Afghanistan belongs to the Afghans and NATO has never thought of becoming a permanent feature of its security and political landscape. NATO´s presence is temporary. The question is how does that presence end and when. And this is something that has to be given thought to, not only because the importance of the situation itself but because the impact of what happens in Afghanistan and what happens with NATO’s military presence there is likely to have further implications, further repercussions for the global peace and security. So let us think about the question of an exit strategy. An exit strategy can mean many things. It can mean successful continuation and completion of the electoral process, which is now taking place in Afghanistan, it can mean more effective work in the area of economic reconstruction, more effective work in prevention of drug trafficking and more effective work in other areas. But it can also mean a more effective organisation of international actors with regard to Afghanistan combined with the reduction of foreign military presence.

Those of you who have followed the situation in that part of the world would agree that, obviously, there is a need for close cooperation among regional actors, including such powerful players in the area as Russia, China and India. It is important to get full involvement of the neighbouring countries, in particular Pakistan and Iran, it is important that Turkey plays its helpful role. And it is important that other countries from the region are also involved. The question now is whether the time has not come to think about another international multilateral setting, perhaps one involving such organisations as NATO, as the one, which is already fully involved, and Collective Security Treaty Organisation, an organisation which brings together a number of countries of Ex-Soviet Union as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an organisation of Central and Eastern Asia, which has shown results and which has a great potential to be made use of.

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am asking these questions because I believe that we have to think creatively and we have to think in terms of how best use the tools, which are already there, but which are not all necessarily involved in an effort to handle the crisis of such magnitude as the crisis of Afghanistan. I have used this example to explain how today’s security challenges effect us all and how it is important to think about mechanisms, to think about institutions, which will constitute a more effective global security system.

Obviously, issues such as those which characterize the situation in Afghanistan, are not the only issues we have to think about. Mention has already been made about energy security and one should also add the questions of global warming and global need to preserve our environment. Today, these days, much thinking is going into the preparations for the Copenhagen conference on global warming and it is expected that the conference will be a major step forward. It is also important, not to overlook the fact that there have been some positive developments in this domain. So, for example the current American administration has taken a very active role and active attitude towards the issues of global warming, which is very welcome. We have seen that China, for example, has taken a very interesting approach to the issues of technological development in the energy use. The fact that China is today the largest single user of the Clean Development Mechanism globally is a very important and promising sign. We should no overlook the fact that Brazil, for example, has committed itself to reduction of deforestation by 70 percent by the year 2017. This is a major policy shift, which still has to be translated into practical measures, but which offers a lot of hope.

Now, let us think what we can do in our part of the world, in Eurasia, and how do we combine the necessary work in the area of reduction of greenhouse gasses, much of that is being discussed in the context of preparations over Copenhagen, and other related matters, such as, for examples, measures to improve our energy security. When putting questions in this fashion one cannot overlook the importance of gas pipelines in our part of the world, in Eurasia. Here some new thinking is called for. We have become used to the fact that natural gas will be an important energy source for the future. And its importance is growing given the need to reduce the amount of greenhouse gasses emissions. In addition, we have to think about cooperative frameworks, which have to be developed.

Slovenia is a country, which is interested in one of the pipeline projects, the Southern stream, and we would like to see that project to succeed. This is not only a matter of our own energy needs, but also our responsibility to the common European energy situation. We would like Europe to be better off. We are fully aware of the fact that today natural gas represents something similar to silk and spices, which were characterising the trade in the Middle Ages. In that period of history, silk and spices represented a guarantee of civilised life in Europe. Today natural gas has the same effect, as one of the recent commentators has succinctly put it.

Now, the question is how do we perceive the gas pipelines projects and whether we have developed a sufficiently cooperative attitude towards these projects. Sometimes one gets an impression that there is a fair amount of competition in this area and that many view the issues of different gas pipelines, which are being discussed, as a form of a "zero-sum game". This is a very wrong approach. We have to think about our common needs, about the needs of energy consumers and energy producers. We have to think about innovation in cooperative sense. I am very happy to see that some innovation is taking place. An example is offered by the recent agreements, which were concluded in Ankara between Russia and Turkey and which have allowed new ways of thinking about energy supplies in this part of the world. So let us think further. Let us think about multilateral arrangements, which will allow better cooperation among all the recipients and all the producers of natural gas and other energy. Bled Forum is a place where issues like these can be put before the participants, and brainstorming is a method, which is necessary at this kind of a moment in history.

And finally, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have to think broadly about issues of security today. Security does not relate only to military matters or security in the narrowest definition. It does not relate only to energy and energy security, it also relates to our common future as societies. The International Labour Organization (ILO) has recently done a study on the long-term effects of the current crisis and it has realised that a prolonged period of jobless growth might be our future. If that happens, obviously, we have to think about social effects of such a situation and we have to think about measures, some of which may require international cooperation. Societies should not be left to their own devices. International cooperation can help.

We are used to think about social issues as soft issues and they indeed are. But they can easily translate themselves into very serious and hard challenges to security if they are not addressed in a timely fashion. So when the ILO speaks about a "decent work response to crisis" we have to think about this concept quite seriously and see how that can be translated into specific measures. Most of the work will have to be done by national governments, by business communities and by labour organizations. But when one thinks about such measures as public works or social entrepreneurship or about expansion of investments and other related matters, then, of course, one can very easily understand that more international cooperation is called for. Some of that will happen within institutions, such as the European Union, but European Union is not all- inclusive and does not provide all the answers. So, we have to think more broadly and with more ambition.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I have tried to bring before you some of my current thoughts on issues of security and cooperation in an era of economic crisis that we are all facing. I am aware of the fact that in a welcome address like this one, one can only sketch out a few questions, offer a hypothesis or two, but that the collective brain power gathered in this room can offer much more. It can offer a more thorough analysis, a much better understanding and, if possible, also some answers. I wish you great success in your work, I wish you creativity, I wish you good results, and I will be looking forward to reading reports about this forum, as I believe many others will do. Thank you very much.